Archive for category BTL
Another one bites the dust. This was addressed many months ago. From $150 per share to .16 cents
Posted by 2011wd in Advanced Fuels, BTL, GTL, Power, Solar, Solar Companies, Speak Truth To Power, Supply & Demand, Truth in Markets on April 4, 2012
Classic example of what we have been talking about for some time now.
http://1eco.com/2011/08/23/why-solar-goes-much-lower-still-the-same-reason-the-sector-high-was-nuts/
Posted on August 23rd 2011.
It was never a question of, IF YOU CAN PRODUCE, MW’s of Power. The question is can you make a profit doing it.
This same thought can be expressed with Bio Fuels. It’s not if you can produce. It’s can you produce for a profit over time?
The current numbers given to many bio-fuel companies are based on current and project product and the associated REVS.
Our observation about those numbers. REV in Alternative Energy MEANS NOTHING.
What does matters is this. CAN YOU MAKE A PROFIT OVER TIME? If so, we are interested. Otherwise the Production and REV. Means Nothing to US, Unless…
You Are talking ADVANCED Fuels, PILOT SCALE, then we are open to the science.
Solar Observations provided by one source, that doesn’t sugar coat everything & is therefor worthy of reading.
The build-outs will be outdated by the time they are finished and the funding model is all wrong.
Posted by 2011wd in Access To Capital, Advanced Building Materials, Advanced Fuels, Bio Based Research Institute, Bio-AutoGas, Bio-Composites, BioBased, Biocatalysts, Biology, Biorefinery, BTL, Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) Catalysts, Green Chemistry, Old Energy Designs, Permaculture, Pre Treatment, Recycled Building Materials, Remediation, Restructure Reports on March 30, 2012
The Talk is of concern for estimated construction cost increases.
This is the very reason why you don’t build big in the first phase of advanced research, design, & development.
This is also why you don’t put all your energy design into one system.
We have been talking about this for years and yet few have had the insight to stop and listen to what we are offering to potential working partners.
Start small and stick with what has been working. Make a profit. Then grow from that operations awareness.
If you don’t know what has been working. We can’t help you. Our 1st Choice potential working partners know & have been doing it for years.
A few words on the subject. Your FEEDSTOCKS are wrong. Much less your Temp.
If selecting this Feedstock and Temp….
It is Green Chemistry that comes from the Thermo Conversion Aspects that should be considered. It is the Separation Tech that should be Advanced if you value the true profit potential as we do.
This is old, as in 2009 but it will get you up to speed on the basics, allowing for a new Biomass Fluid Catalytic Cracking (BFCC) Catalysts
Excellent People. Worthy Goal. How you don’t get cost over runs with this type of large scale objective is beyond our, proven small scale, thinking.
This is not some quick fix green race. Rather it is the Energy Business that is attempting to go green over time.
If you forget that long term fact, you will not be around, nor will your investors make money.
Case in point. The talk is of being able to use old energy refiners. Sure the integrated in the mix would like to see this, however the green in anyone who has been in this research work for over 20 years, might say, Wait a minute. Shouldn’t the Hydroprocessing REACTOR be ADVANCED?
Shouldn’t the design of the New Plant be ADVANCED. If all you are doing is talking about a MORE COSTLY Old System the cost over runs are going to be there because the old systems will also need to be advanced.
This was shown as far back as 2004. Where were some of these new green thinkers then? Even old energy Pros know they need to change how they are building their systems. That means cost overruns every time. So much so, that no one wants to go first with any new build because they know it will be outdated before it is finished, see the latest, coming out of Cal
Bottom line is this. Even the Old Energy Systems must be advanced. What is it going to cost and how long is it going to take? Don’t let anyone blow smoke up your butt. No one knows, but you can bet it will cost more and take longer than anyone attempting to promote any new idea truly understands.
Hence the reason you don’t just focus on BTL & GTL. There is far more to consider and if you are not understanding this yet. We can’t help you.
More than Willing to offer up this. It is going to take far more than any new start up can raise with some IPO. That is nothing more tnan a VC pipedream. When we say this is Large Scale, we are addressing the scope & demand of integration. This is the very reason we have been doing this with our own dime. Expect 25 years of R&D with very little hope of Rev., while in research & design mode. Energy is only one piece of a much bigger puzzle. That puzzle must be integrated, closed looped, & designed with a permaculture understanding and awareness. Old Energy doesn’t even have a CLUE in that regard and doesn’t want one either. Anyone attempting to bring green solutions to old energy design models is barking up the wrong tree and will face overruns strong enough to kill a HORSE.
The old energy integrated can afford that. Can you?
National Biomass Map
Posted by 2011wd in 2012 BTL report, 2012 Energy Report, Biomass Map, Biorefinery, BTL, Cellulosic Bio Refinery, downstream, Green Chemistry, Green Design, Green Sustainable Future, green transportation, GTL, integrate CAD/BIM/GIS, Integrated Farming, midstream on March 20, 2012
Notice the three GTL aspects at the bottom of the map page.
We would add two more. Seems some have forgotten old energy designs must be a part of the economic equation
in their bio based economic business model evaluations.
This is directly related to wholesale production cost demands which are extensive in all biomass systems.
This the reason why all of our Green sciences research is both, BTL, & GTL, oriented. If you don’t have Water Remediation added to the mix, your plant is outdated and not truly integrated. If Algae is not a major part of that remediation, you’re not thinking sub systems integration.
The Catalysts is a vital part of the cost effective bio-refinery. Is the Catalysts plentiful & affordable? Is it Bio Based?
Posted by 2011wd in Bio Based Research Institute, Bio-AutoGas, Bio-Composites, Bio-gas, BioBased, Biocatalysts, Biology, Biorefinery, BTL, Cellulosic Bio Refinery on March 12, 2012
The Two Sinks for Co2. Algae and Agri-Char
Posted by 2011wd in 2012 BTL report, 2012 Energy Report, Agri Char, Algae, Aquatic Farming, Biorefinery, BTL, CCSC, Cellulosic Bio Refinery, Green Chemistry, Waste To Energy, Water and Waste Treatment on March 11, 2012
If your bio-refinery is truly integrated then you must be advanced in both Algae growth and Agri-Char for the purposes of CO2 Sinks.
It is no longer Carbon Capture and Storage. CCS. It is rather CCSC. Carbon Capture, Storage, & Conversion.
If your not converting CO2 into products, you are missing the clean, green, integration boat.
Gevo has been rated third in 2011.
Posted by 2011wd in 2012 BTL report, 2012 Energy Report, Biorefinery, BTL, CAD/BIM/GIS, Cellulosic Bio Refinery, Gevo on March 6, 2012
Gevo has the new fuel product regarded by many in the know, as higher alcohols attractive.
GEVO 7.17 0.50 6.52% 2.17 187.12M -40.08M 3.10 38.42% 5.60 -2.15 -0.54 26.10M -0.15 -18.22% -0.56
They also have a negative EBITDA of
-40.08M for 2011.
With a 26M float and the forward est. earnings projected to be -53 cents per share, it would seem the negative EBITDA will keep coming for a while.
No one has proven to us as yet, that the science for their favorite alternative fuel, has proven to be cost effective per gal. From what we know with regard to that complex higher alcohol objective the price has not come down by the gal. While we admire the higher alcohol objective, we find it hard to believe it can be produced cheaply as yet.
If we are wrong, we will eat crow, as this is just our two cents. Why not, PROVE IT. What you don’t hear with all of their science speak, is any words with regard to cost effective production costs. Not one word. Is it any wonder then the negative numbers keep coming.
The first question that should always be asked with every new alternative fuel blend & feedstock is this. What is your est. cost to produce per gal?
If they can’t tell you. Move on down the road.
The size of the plant is as important as the design and build.
Posted by 2011wd in 10K Dekatherms, 2012 BTL report, 2012 Energy Report, Bio-AutoGas, Bio-gas, Biorefinery, BTL, Butane, CAD/BIM/GIS, Cellulosic Bio Refinery, Ethane, GTL, Price on March 6, 2012
Anything over 30,000 gals a day is to much during the first phase.
It is possible to see large scale development projects ongoing in alternative fuels and nothing is more ill advised than spending to much money or building to a plant that is far to big. If there is not a blend of BTL and GTL Advanced research in the build, the cost is misguided at best. What comes of these large scale plants is poor utilization rates and that can be seen across the board. Add in transport costs and you have a recipe for operations & economic disaster.
Only when the mix is integrated and designed around modular model phase advancement will it be designed correctly. Anything else is simply a waste of money.
There are excellent people within the research and business development arms of the alternative energy business. Those people are of interest to us. As we review each company in the BTL & GTL reports we are only reporting on the numbers spent and the design and build as we see it.
This does not mean their research and business efforts don’t show promise or that they may not experience growth in the outlying years. Their research maybe wonderful and their business model may yet prove successful. We simply see everything from the investor side of the line.
Viewed as if, it were are own money, because it has been. Every step of the way.
Plants are reported with yearly production models. We find that most amusing. As if the plant will be operating all day,every day. What our lifetime in operations has taught us from the trouble shooter side of the line, is this. The key to success is learning operations and managing operations over time with a cost effective business model and trained staff. Past that you never know if your going to be producing the next day or not.
You sure as hell, don’t know your annual numbers, unless you have a working history of proven results, which is not the case with any integrated bio-refinery, anywhere in the world. Might look good to help raise money from investors, but otherwise, it’s bull corn.
What the markets do tell is this. If you can’t produce for $2 a gal, get out of the business.
The problems with crop based biofuels are many. None more so, than supply and demand.
Posted by 2011wd in 2012 BTL report, 2012 Energy Report, Biorefinery, BTL, Supply & Demand, Sustainable Food Production on March 5, 2012
There are those who think you can take an old ethanol plant and convert it to new advanced working methods, thus saving money. The more logical & cost effective path is that the buyers of these old plants, simply hope to produce more and better crop based ethanol with their processing know how.
What they may not factor in is the potential problems.
None more so, than supply and demand.
If you reduce gasoline use in the U.S. Domestic, you will also reduce the need for ethanol as a blending fuel. If you have a crop based ethanol plant & that crop is selling at a high price, now your FEEDSTOCK has priced your plant out of business, or at the very least SHUT IT DOWN.
This might give you time for your first old design idea and that was to retro fit the plant. Problem is the cost. Big mistake using a FOOD source for FUEL.
Until your FEEDSTOCK is Non Crop Based your plant is of little value as a blending fuel because your product is not in Demand. This while demand is dropping all the time U.S. Domestic as less FUEL is being used. The goal is to REDUCE DEMAND BY 33%. This allowing for the END of IMPORTS coming from the M.E.
It would seem most in alt. fuels, simply forget that conservation objective. BIG MISTAKE.
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