Notice the three GTL aspects at the bottom of the map page.

We would add two more. Seems some have forgotten old energy designs must be a part of the economic equation
in their bio based economic business model evaluations.

This is directly related to wholesale production cost demands which are extensive in all biomass systems.

This the reason why all of our Green sciences research is both, BTL, & GTL, oriented. If you don’t have Water Remediation added to the mix, your plant is outdated and not truly integrated. If Algae is not a major part of that remediation, you’re not thinking sub systems integration.

Biocatalysts

It is no longer Carbon Capture and Storage. CCS. It is rather CCSC. Carbon Capture, Storage, & Conversion.

If your not converting CO2 into products, you are missing the clean, green, integration boat.

Dr. Marie Barbosa

They are missing the boat from several directions, however just understanding the drop in, fuel and chemical demand. puts this work ahead of most.

Of the $1.4B invested last year, only 1/3 was geared toward Thermochemical. Without the Chemistry, the biology is simply held back, & will remain on hold.

If your biology is not running toward an Algae growth path, or you are still stuck in Corn, Study your closed loop, none crop, biomass objectives, all over again.

If you don’t have permaculture in your design, forget your integration model, it is simply flawed.

If your GTL is OFF, then get out now. You can’t get there from here without this extremely important phase. BTL without GTL advancements is still 5 years away from the projected target yield. If your not addressing the two key price reduction demands now with all your time and money, then you still will not get there.

It’s not a matter of producing. It is a matter of producing at an affordable price over time. Even if you find the price reductions in every key area, operations is still demanded to prove commercial success. The risk from here is still extremely high that no profit will ever be made even with all the work that has been done. This is why, throwing money at the problem has never been the answer. What is required is time for research. Something most simply do not wish to give without the price that is required to be paid. A lifetime of work, while still not knowing if it will be cost effective. That is the true cost of this research.

Anyone who tells you different is blowing smoke up their own rear end and serves you no purpose. You can’t dream up the yield per ton, or pray for the cost per gal. to magically go down, without better science. We have the best in their field exhibiting very exciting promise & yet we are smart enough to know we are still years away from anything proven. We are also smart enough to know the sub systems must be cost effective to BUILD, AS the construction costs must come down, while operating expenses are reduced. The math becomes fuzzy directly related to the size & the never ending cost over runs, which no one wishes to address.

What you don’t do is start out with a production yield objective of 200,000 gals a day. This is throwing money at the problem. Massive mistake.

The only way to get costs in line is to reduce the plant size from the start. If you have fixed numbers per sub system, we are buying. If you have proven operations we are buying. Otherwise don’t waste your time here. The fact that storage, transportation, distribution, expenses, across the board, is not even addressed & speaks vols. to the lack of understanding with regard to total integrated production costs.

This is not simply downstream. This is midstream coming together with downstream. If your not on that over all cost expense demand number, your off by a MILE.

What is the waste to energy program like?

What does the water and waste treatment look like?

The Bio-Gas vol. Should MATTER.

What does the enzymatic program look like? This is key.

GEVO 7.17 0.50 6.52% 2.17 187.12M -40.08M 3.10 38.42% 5.60 -2.15 -0.54 26.10M -0.15 -18.22% -0.56

They also have a negative EBITDA of
-40.08M for 2011.

With a 26M float and the forward est. earnings projected to be -53 cents per share, it would seem the negative EBITDA will keep coming for a while.

No one has proven to us as yet, that the science for their favorite alternative fuel, has proven to be cost effective per gal. From what we know with regard to that complex higher alcohol objective the price has not come down by the gal. While we admire the higher alcohol objective, we find it hard to believe it can be produced cheaply as yet.

If we are wrong, we will eat crow, as this is just our two cents. Why not, PROVE IT. What you don’t hear with all of their science speak, is any words with regard to cost effective production costs. Not one word. Is it any wonder then the negative numbers keep coming.

The first question that should always be asked with every new alternative fuel blend & feedstock is this. What is your est. cost to produce per gal?

If they can’t tell you. Move on down the road.

It is possible to see large scale development projects ongoing in alternative fuels and nothing is more ill advised than spending to much money or building to a plant that is far to big. If there is not a blend of BTL and GTL Advanced research in the build, the cost is misguided at best. What comes of these large scale plants is poor utilization rates and that can be seen across the board. Add in transport costs and you have a recipe for operations & economic disaster.

Only when the mix is integrated and designed around modular model phase advancement will it be designed correctly. Anything else is simply a waste of money.

There are excellent people within the research and business development arms of the alternative energy business. Those people are of interest to us. As we review each company in the BTL & GTL reports we are only reporting on the numbers spent and the design and build as we see it.

This does not mean their research and business efforts don’t show promise or that they may not experience growth in the outlying years. Their research maybe wonderful and their business model may yet prove successful. We simply see everything from the investor side of the line.

Viewed as if, it were are own money, because it has been. Every step of the way.

Plants are reported with yearly production models. We find that most amusing. As if the plant will be operating all day,every day. What our lifetime in operations has taught us from the trouble shooter side of the line, is this. The key to success is learning operations and managing operations over time with a cost effective business model and trained staff. Past that you never know if your going to be producing the next day or not.

You sure as hell, don’t know your annual numbers, unless you have a working history of proven results, which is not the case with any integrated bio-refinery, anywhere in the world. Might look good to help raise money from investors, but otherwise, it’s bull corn.

What the markets do tell is this. If you can’t produce for $2 a gal, get out of the business.

Those permaculture pieces are finally coming together for both the natural oils and pretreated enzymatic complex sugars. Those green chemistry organic designs will start out small with a production rate that doesn’t over produce and does not need to concern itself with the price of gasoline or diesel.

With that, the design and build must be both unique, & cost effective. It is, as if seeing, Ethanol, Bio Diesel, & crop based sugars, all over again. Same Song, different verse, like some broken record. Billions raised in search of producing fuel as an alternative to gasoline & diesel. How many hundreds of plants have been built, all with the best of intentions. How many are producing fuel now with ongoing operations are producing a profit? Keep in mind if the feedstock is a CROP based biomass IT IS NOT regarded as sustainable.

There are a few who see the future. They are on the right path & yet they still may not get there. Unless you are integrated, you’re only dreaming.

Without and extensive trained staff even that is nothing more than a pipe dream. Operations the key, & that will demand and army of trained professionals. We will first work to train those workers. It is, & always will be, about the very finest trained working team.

To be sure, the design and build will be small enough to produce a profit and expand with the advancements in research as more cost effective operations are discovered with operations as the guide.

The story is told in the 52 week High’s & lows

Price† Change High Low
Light Crude 106.70 -2.14 108.70 93.95
Corn 655.00 -0.25 792.00 557.50
Gasoline 3.27 -0.0796 3.30 2.50
Ethanol 2.26 +0.00 2.26 2.25

MAYBE JUST MAYBE, we might begin to build a new alternative energy sustainable future, when they learn to stay out of the way.

We shall see.

As for us, We ARE READY.

Until you learn the trading action, NEVER TAKE A DIME from a single investor. YOU BOTH WILL GET BEAT.

http://bit.ly/gZARcb

The very reason old energy doesn’t care about green energy solutions. They know they can pick it up on less than it cost you to build it if you don’t understand the long term price action. Plan on trading for 15 years, then consider producing. Better yet, 25.

You don’t have to like the product, but you MUST RESPECT IT. This was, and has, NOT BEEN DONE, by most in bio based fuels. Add to the mix that what was produced is not truly green and it becomes easy to see WHY, MOST Who claim to understand investment in green fuel PRODUCTION, Don’t know their BUTT from their ELBOW.

Natural Gas is greener than most Alternative Energy Plays and YET, it is still regarded as FAR LESS THAN GREEN. The concern is directly related to drilling into the ground and doing anything that is not natural to the subsurface. Anything that might end up in the water table is regarded as a major risk and the clean burn aspect of natural gas will always be seen as less than ideal.

see both sides dealing with natural gas…

http://bit.ly/jcUKM

&

http://bit.ly/dcsg7

& here, where the real problems start to surface, to the point the ranchers are asking earthjustice for help…

http://earthjustice.org/features/coalbed-methane-in-the-powder-river-basin

What is always easy to see in each of these energy plays is moderation MUST factor into the overall equation or problems become the NORM.

IT HAS BEEN and ALWAYS WILL BE, OPERATIONS that proves up long term sustainable success in all energy solutions. OPERATIONS DEMAND moderation. They also demand REMEDIATION. If you don’t know REMEDIATION stay out of energy production and stay out of operations. YOU WILL ONLY FAIL, LONG TERM.

If you are in solar and wind and think, Natural gas will not play a major role in the future of energy, YOU ARE IN FOR A SLOW ROAD to NOWHERE, & SO are your INVESTORS.